As the globe continues to warm and extreme weather events intensify, Australia faces a demographic upheaval as some regions become too risky to live in.
With more households living through floods, fires, cyclones, and heat waves, anxiety about climate change is inevitably escalating and we can expect many Australians to relocate to safer parts of the country. Projecting not too far into the future we can anticipate large-sale population realignments across the nation, with a drift towards the south and coastal regions.
This trend is evident already. A new nationwide survey, commissioned by me and carried out by Roy Morgan Research, has found that 14 per cent of those who have moved home in the last six years say their relocation was in part motivated by climate change. Climate factors play a stronger role in decisions to move for those in regional NSW, regional Queensland, and Brisbane compared to elsewhere.
The survey also finds that for 22 per cent of those intending to move home in the next 12 months, their decision is partly influenced by climate change or extreme weather events. Among those who have experienced an extreme weather event, 36 per cent say they intend to move in part because of the effects of climate change.
The survey results also reveal that over a third of Australians say they think about moving home because they are worried about extreme weather where they live. Those most concerned about climate change think about moving much more frequently.
Australia lagging?
Overall, extreme weather events such as floods and heatwaves are not yet playing a large role in the decisions of most Australians to move home. Only 5-10 per cent say that climate change was influential somewhat or a great deal, rather than just a little, although for some groups it counts for more.
This contrasts with the situation in the United States where a 2021 survey of 2,000 Americans found that, of those planning to relocate in the subsequent 12 months, half said that natural disasters and extreme temperatures were a factor in their decisions to move. And three-quarters said they would be hesitant to buy a home in an area with climate risk.
Public discussion of climate-induced internal migration in Australia lags well behind the United States where books, scholarly articles, and news reports have proliferated in recent years. In his widely discussed book The Great Displacement, Jake Bittle argues that the changing climate will bring mass migration within the United States, a shift already observable.
Abrahm Lustgarten, in his best-selling book On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America, describes the first signs of an ‘epochal slow-motion exodus out of inhospitable places,’ with experts predicting a northward population shift into a ‘shrinking triangle’ of habitable land from Tennessee to Maine to the Great Lakes by mid-century.
In March this year, the New York Times published a manual for ‘how to shop for a home that won’t be upended by climate change,’ a long and detailed guide for readers to help them assess the climate risks of a place or dwelling they intend to move to.
Although Australians are thinking and worrying about how they and their children will cope in a world transformed by climate change, public discussion of the vast implications of this demographic reshuffle—from town planning, development pressures, and infrastructure strains to food supplies, parks management, and much more—is close to zero.
The federal government’s recent National Adaptation Plan was a weak attempt, quickly buried, to tick the ‘we-have-a-plan’ box while doing virtually nothing. A 2023 report on internal migration prepared for the Australian Treasury contained no discussion of how global warming might affect internal migration. In fact, global warming was not mentioned.
When a popular demographer wrote recently about how Australia will change this century, he did not mention climate change once, let alone the major demographic shifts that it will almost certainly bring. The media, while loving a good weather disaster story, has shown little interest in reporting or explaining how Australians will be forced to adapt to the new and unstable climatic regime.
With the Earth now on track to warm by 2.6ºC or more, we should be preparing for what we know is coming, yet it seems that the only organisations paying attention are the insurance and real estate industries. Certainly, green groups do not want to know about it; for them, talking about how to cope with extreme weather is ‘capitulating’ or ‘giving up’. We must give people hope, they say, even though they know that much more warming and extreme weather are now locked in.
Those most committed to cutting emissions seem least inclined to talk about the climate change that can no longer be prevented. Our study suggests that, despite the public silence, most Australians are thinking about it and a substantial minority are thinking about it often and making plans to protect themselves and their families.
Which state?
The survey asked respondents which state or territory will be the safest one to live in as the globe warms. Predictably, Tasmania is the clear winner. Two in five Australians (41 per cent) choose it, with other states falling well behind.
Tasmania is preferred especially by those most worried about climate change and who expect the climate to be much warmer by 2050. These respondents also tend to have higher levels of education. And they are more likely to vote for progressive parties.
Tasmanians are aware of the trend. A steady trickle of well-informed mainlanders (including several climate scientists) has been flowing to the southernmost state for a few years.
The survey shows that, contrary to the popular image of living off-grid on self‑sufficient farms, most Australians believe residing in existing towns and cities will be safest as the planet warms. When asked which area or region of their preferred state will be safest, three out of five choose cities or towns rather than rural or remote areas.
Younger adults are more inclined to choose suburban and outer urban living while older Australians are more likely to favour country towns. Community connections and shared services are viewed as essential buffers against the stresses of life in a changing climate.
The social implications of the coming demographic upheaval are far-reaching. A new kind of mental map of Australia is taking root, one in which certain regions are seen as too risky while others are deemed climate‑safe, even ‘climate havens.’ The capacity to move is unevenly distributed, so we can expect to see wealthier groups clustering in climate-resilient regions, suburbs and towns, while disadvantaged populations remain exposed to heat, floods, and bushfires, amplifying health and economic inequities.
Research Papers 5 & 6 (along with a technical report detailing the survey sampling and methodology) may be found here:
https://www.csu.edu.au/research/climate-adaptation-survey/research/research-papers
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